Author: Jaime Jessop

Examining The Science And The Possible Origin of The ‘New Strain’ Of Covid-19

First published at Cliscep 25 Dec 2020

After claiming that cancelling Christmas would be “inhuman”, Scrooge Johnson promptly cancelled Christmas. Then Hancock cancelled Boxing Day just to make sure. Why? Because of a supposedly “70% more transmissible” new strain of Covid which was spreading like wildfire in London and Kent – and now it seems, Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, Essex and Oxforshire. Next year it will probably be everywhere and we’ll all have to suffer the economic and social catastrophe of Tier 4 lockdowns until we beg to be vaccinated (and probably long after that too). The name given to this ‘new strain’ is VUI 202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation, year 2020, month 12, variant 01), or B.1.1.7. Firstly, as the name suggests, it’s not a ‘new strain’, it’s a new variant – and it’s not that new. It was first reported in mid October when two samples from Kent and London sent to the Milton Keynes Lighthouse Lab were genetically sequenced by COG-UK. The dates of the samples were 20th September (Kent) and 21st September (London). Nothing much seems to be known about these ‘patients’. Were they asymptomatic (tested in the community) or did they have symptoms or were they in hospital? I can find no information at present. Had they recently arrived from abroad? That would mean the origin of the new variant might not even be the UK. Who knows.

The other thing is, it’s not a ‘new strain’ as claimed by our clueless politicians and media. To qualify for that status, it would have to have conclusively demonstrated a distinct clinical difference from other dominant strains in circulation, i.e. increased transmissibility and/or enhanced or even lower virulence. So far, despite the claims by NERVTAG and the government, no such evidence has been demonstrated. The claim of ‘70% more transmissible’ is based on modelling and is not backed up by hard data. This virology Professor explains in detail why he is not too worried by the new variant and why the claims by NERVTAG and the government are scare-mongering hype not backed up by hard science and data.

It’s a pretty damning video. He forensically dismantles the claims made by NERVTAG about this being a distinct new strain which has gained an evolutionary advantage over other, less contagious strains, basically stating that you cannot infer biological properties of a virus from limited epidemiological data only and that you must perform experiments in the field. For example, the apparent rapid spread of this new variant may simply be down to super-spreader events as it is well known that 80% of transmissions are caused by 10% of infectious individuals. He also goes through all the changes in the amino acid proteins (in particular the spike amino acid proteins) which are incorrectly called ‘mutations’ – even by the experts – and points out that the ORF8 changes may actually mean that this variant is less virulent. So even if it does turn out to be more contagious and does spread through the community, it may actually be a good thing because it will mean that a greater number of people become infected at less risk and natural herd immunity is attained that much quicker.

The government doesn’t see it this way of course. Nor does the WHO. It’s just an excuse to keep us all locked up for longer, with even more restrictions upon our personal liberty until we are forced to accept vaccination for a disease which to the vast majority does not present a major threat and is about 99.96% survivable. Ferguson doesn’t see it that way either. He was supposed to have resigned from all government advisory roles after he broke the rules of the lockdown which he was instrumental in implementing back in May. But he has now popped back up in NERVTAG and suddenly he’s the darling of the media again and the government are hanging on his every word. He’s warning us about the ‘threat’ of this new variant being transmitted by schoolchildren, bringing kids further under the jackboot of the psychopaths who are intent on controlling our lives. So don’t be surprised if schools are closed in a new lockdown in January on the ‘recommendation’ of Pants Down Ferguson who, it seems, is a turd which just cannot be flushed. The very same Ferguson responsible for the unnecessary slaughter of millions of innocent farm animals in the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic and who predicted 150,000 deaths from BSE, among other catastrophic failures. Being wrong is his speciality it seems, an expertise which apparently qualifies him to give advice to the government on policies which affect all our lives, including voicing his opinion on how other peoples’ kids should have their lives seriously disrupted yet again.

Something which Prof. Vincent Racaniello neglected to mention and which is pertinent is the fact that this new variant has a large number of changes and deletions in the genome (14 changes and 3 deletions) which, on the face of it, mark it out as unique. They all ‘appeared’ at once, which is ‘unprecedented’, given the estimated mutation rate of approximately 1 or 2 per month. Lots of ‘mutations’ have been tracked, but never have 17 been recorded simultaneously in a newly discovered variant. It is also notable that a total of 8 changes occur in the critical spike region of the virus, when only 44 have been recorded previously. So it is perhaps unsurprising that the appearance of this new variant and its apparent rapid spread has caused some to worry, but is that concern justified enough to further destroy people’s lives? I think not and I will attempt to explain why not.

When I say lots of mutations have been tracked I do mean lots; in fact 12,706 ‘mutations’ up until 21 September 2020. What is remarkable is that none of those mutations have proven to have had any significant effect upon transmissibility or pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2. It’s a rather odd coincidence that this paper, published on 25th November, authored by our old friend Francois Balloux and others, only covers up to the exact date that the new variant was discovered in Kent and London. So presumably, the ‘new strain of Covid’ is not included in this analysis. But here is what the study says:

The most plausible mutations under putative natural selection are those which have emerged repeatedly and independently (homoplasies). Here, we formally test whether any homoplasies observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date are significantly associated with increased viral transmission. To do so, we develop a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele. We apply this index to a curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of 46,723 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide. We do not identify a single recurrent mutation in this set convincingly associated with increased viral transmission. Instead, recurrent mutations currently in circulation appear to be evolutionary neutral and primarily induced by the human immune system via RNA editing, rather than being signatures of adaptation. 

We informally estimated the mutation rate over our alignment as 9.8 × 10−4 substitutions per site per year, which is consistent with previous rates estimated for SARS-CoV-21,2,3,4 (Figs. S1 and S2). This rate also falls in line with those observed in other coronaviruses25,26 and is fairly unremarkable relative to other positive single-stranded RNA viruses, which do not have a viral proof-reading mechanism.

Across our data set, we identified a total of 12,706 mutations, heavily enriched in C→U transitions, of which we identified 398 strongly supported recurrent mutations (Supplementary Data 3 and Supplementary Figs. 4 and 5). Employing a phylogenetic index (RoHO) to test whether these recurrent mutations contribute to a change in transmission, we found no candidate convincingly associated with a significant increase or decrease in transmissibility (Figs. 2 and 3 and Supplementary Data 4).

A much discussed mutation in the context of demographic confounding is D614G (nucleotide position 23,403), a non-synonymous change in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein. Korber et al. suggested that D614G increases transmissibility but with no measurable effect on patient infection outcome21. Other studies have suggested associations with increased infectivity in vitro18,40 and antigenicity41. Here we conversely find that D614G does not associate with significantly increased viral transmission (median log10(RoHO) = 0, paired t test p = 0.28; Supplementary Data 4), in line with our results for all other tested recurrent mutations. 

These apparently contrasting results for D614G should be considered carefully. What is, however, indisputable is that D614G emerged early in the pandemic and is now found at high frequency globally, with 36,347 assemblies in our data set (77.8%) carrying the derived allele (Fig. 1a and Supplementary Data 3). However, D614G is also in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with three other derived mutations (nucleotide positions 241, 3037, and 14,408) that have experienced highly similar expansions, as 98.9% of accessions with D614G also carry these derived alleles (35,954/36,347). It should be noted that the D614G mutation displays only five independent emergences that qualify for inclusion in our analyses (fewer than the other three sites it is associated with). While this limits our power to detect a statistically significant association with transmissibility, the low number of independent emergences suggests to us that the abundance of D614G is more probably a demographic artefact: D614G went up in frequency as the SARS-CoV-2 population expanded, largely due to a founder effect originating from one of the deepest branches in the global phylogeny, rather than being a driver of transmission itself.

To summarise, what Balloux et al are saying is that they’ve examined thousands of changes in the genome of SARS-CoV-2 since it first emerged and they have found none that significantly alter the biology of the virus in terms of transmissibility or pathogenicity. One ‘mutation’ in the spke protein, D614G, which first appeared in February, was thought to increase transmissibility and virulence but turned out to be largely neutral and its spread around the globe was attributed largely to the Founder Effect, which Prof . Racaniello discusses in the video above.

Matt Ridley has a opinion piece in the Telegraph on the subject of this new variant and he makes much of the fact that it suddenly appeared with an unprecedented number of changes in the amino acid proteins, suggesting, he says, that those changes occurred artificially, not randomly, as occurred with the 12,706 mutated genomes which Balloux et al analysed. He tends to paint an alarming picture:

This number of changes would normally take months to emerge at the rate the virus typically evolves: it is less prone to random mutation than an influenza virus. What caused such a burst of evolution within perhaps a single body?

Here the story gets alarming. According to analysis by Andrew Rambaut at Edinburgh University and colleagues for the Covid-19 Genomics Consortium UK, such high rates of mutation have happened in people with suppressed immune systems who get a Covid infection that persists for months and are treated with “convalescent plasma” – essentially blood extracted from those who have recovered from Covid.

In a person with a deficient immune system, a large population of viruses can proliferate, mutate and diversify, and then the treatment selects a new strain from among this diversity.

Essentially, the virus has a crash course in evolution. If so, this casts doubt on the wisdom of convalescent-plasma treatment, pitting the possibility that it might save a life against the possibility that it might help the virus become more infectious or lethal.

As Matt points out, he is referring to a theory of the origin of this new variant put forward by a team of academics lead by Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, in conjunction with the Universities of Birmingham, Oxford, Imperial College, Cambridge, Cardiff, The Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute and the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research. What they say is this:

What evolutionary processes or selective pressures might have given rise to lineage B.1.1.7?
High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given.

Under such circumstances, the evolutionary dynamics of and selective pressures upon the intra-patient virus population are expected to be very different to those experienced in typical infection. First, selection from natural immune responses in immune-deficient/suppressed patients will be weak or absent. Second, the selection arising from antibody therapy may be strong due to high antibody concentrations. Third, if antibody therapy is administered after many weeks of chronic infection, the virus population may be unusually large and genetically diverse at the time that antibody-mediated selective pressure is applied, creating suitable circumstances for the rapid fixation of multiple virus genetic changes through direct selection and genetic hitchhiking.

These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections.

Although we speculate here that chronic infection played a role in the origins of the B.1.1.7 variant, this remains a hypothesis and we cannot yet infer the precise nature of this event.

It’s basically just a speculative hypothesis about the origin of the ‘new strain’. By their own admission, they don’t have any solid evidence it would seem and it would also appear to be the case that the two people who initially tested positive for this ‘new strain’ are not immuno-compromised patients who have suffered Covid for a long period, otherwise we would have heard about it now, I’m sure. The authors refer to several examples of enhanced viral evolution in immuno-compromised patients to back up their theory and there is an example of an immuno-compromised patient suffering recurrent bouts of Covid-19 over several months who sadly died. A series of changes in the genome of the virus were observed over the course of the treatment, but they appear to be nothing like the changes recorded for this new variant, so obviously, this particular patient was not the source of the new variant. I quote:

Phylogenetic analysis was consistent with persistent infection and accelerated viral evolution (Figures 1A and S6). Amino acid changes were predominantly in the spike gene and the receptor-binding domain, which make up 13% and 2% of the viral genome, respectively, but harbored 57% and 38% of the observed changes (Figure 1B).

Although most immunocompromised persons effectively clear SARS-CoV-2 infection, this case highlights the potential for persistent infection5 and accelerated viral evolution associated with an immunocompromised state.

So, though it is a possibility that the new variant may have arisen as a result of prolonged treatment of an immuno-compromised patient, in the absence of any patient fitting the profile, it remains just a theory. The actual origin of these synchronously appearing ‘mutations’ thus remains a mystery. It’s a possibility but we cannot definitely blame plasma convalescent therapy for the emergence of this new variant. So what else might explain where it came from?

We maybe have a clue as to the origins of this virus from the following article:

After the first official records of the virus in September, progress was slow, and it wasn’t until England’s second wave took hold in late October that cases exploded.

This, scientists say, could be because the virus strain is faster spreading and made cases rise quicker – or it could be that it was simply found more often as cases surged naturally.

At the time of the first sample the UK was averaging just 3,700 positive coronavirus tests per day. By the start of November, when samples were coming in thick and fast, the average number of positive results had skyrocketed to 23,000 per day.

Professor Loman said there was ‘no evidence’ the strain had come from any other countries, adding: ‘It’s sort of come out of nowhere.

‘We have a long gap between the first cases we saw with this variant in late September [and recent surge in cases]… It’s more likely to have evolved in the UK but we don’t know that.

‘There are very few examples of this variant in other countries at the moment – it’s really a kind of UK phenomenon.’

Well, sorry, but “It’s sort of come out of nowhere” is not adequate. We need explanations, if only tentative explanations. It’s the first time apparently, as noted above, that a virus has been discovered with so many (17) changes in the genome. These changes accumulate slowly in SARS-CoV-2 at a rate of 1-2 per month and none have so far proved to be significant in terms of transmission or virulence. So if these changes happened naturally, they might have taken several months and the question arises as to how they managed to remain unobserved until September 20th?

The first thing to note is that COG-UK first started sequencing Covid viruses back in March 2020. It should be pointed out though that until July, all sequenced positive samples were from the limited number of Pillar 1 tests in hospitals. So initially, not many samples were being sequenced. Then Pillar 2 testing got going and the number of tests rose rapidly from July onwards, as did the number of positives. In concert with the rising number of positives, more and more samples were sent for sequencing. I believe at some point, the Wellcome-Sanger Institute (who do a lot of the sequencing for COG-UK) automated their processes so they could handle a lot more samples. Also, when national and international travel restrictions were relaxed in July and August, there appeared many more SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the UK, which most likely were imported from other countries. This analysis from the Welsh Government confirms that fact:

While we have seen increases over the summer, the numbers of UK lineages remain less than in mid-March.

The graphs demonstrate the two types of lineage that are currently causing disease in Wales. 

Firstly, UK lineages such as UK5 and UK2243 have been long term causes of disease in Wales. UK5 is the largest UK lineage and was probably introduced into the UK multiple times in February/March, and became rapidly established in community transmission. As one of the largest lineages, it has continued to transmit in the community as other smaller lineages have died out. Secondly, we see a new wave of lineages arriving in Wales over the summer. Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.

So, after the initial epidemic, which saw many different lineages, they tailed off into late spring/early summer, then genetic diversity increased once again going into late summer/early autumn, as people jetted off on their holidays and returned to the UK. Concurrent with that, we have a large increase in the number of sequencing being done from positive tests across the UK. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that the variant discovered with 17 ‘mutations’ in Kent and London in mid October, from samples donated at the end of September, could have arrived in the UK during September and have evolved naturally in another country, unnoticed, because that particular country was doing very little sequencing? Those two people carrying the virus get tested, their samples get sequenced by COG-UK and hey presto, a ‘new variant’ with an ‘unprecedented number of ‘mutations’ suddenly appears. A few months later, when it starts spreading in the community, for reasons which may have nothing whatsoever to do with the claimed ‘70% increased transmissibility’, Johnson, Hancock, Ferguson, Whitty and Vallance realise they’re onto a winner and use the new ‘mutant Covid strain’ as a perfect excuse to cancel Christmas in the UK with just a few days’ notice.

Making Good News Look Like Bad – The Fake Case For Tiers

Neil O’ Brien MP has tweeted this:

Here’s the graph he tweeted:

Do you see what they did here? They plotted case numbers per 100k of population on 12th November (y-axis) against the same quantity on 19th November (x-axis).

If cases had not changed in 7 days, any region would lie exactly on the dotted line. If cases had decreased in 7 days, the region would lie above the dotted line – and as you can see, most are above the line, with the notable exception of Kent, where cases have increased in the week from Nov 12th to Nov 19th.

So, in effect, this graph is good news but they’ve made it look like bad news by the sneaky way in which it has been presented. Had they swapped the x and y axes, most regions would appear below the line, but that wouldn’t give the right impression would it?

This graph has obviously been contructed by the government purely as a ruse to convince the casual oberver that the new Tiers are justified when they obviously are not. Who knows how much further ‘cases’ will have decreased in the Tiers 2 and 3 regions by 2nd December, but this data will be ignored of course.

Kerry’s Climate Whores

I see a lot nowadays which tends to turn my stomach, but this has to take the biscuit. Climate ‘scientists’ openly prostituting their ‘services’ to John ‘You could just as easily replace the words climate change with COVID-19’ Kerry who has apparently been nominated by fake President Biden to be ‘climate czar’ in his new administration, if he manages to secure his fraudulent election victory.

**Health Warning: the following content may induce involuntary retching and/or severe nausea.**

Yuk!

The Strange Case Of The Disappearance Of ‘Flu

Apparently, according to WHO figures, influenza cases from Week 15 (April) of 2020 have declined by 98% compared to 2019, whilst Covid-19 cases have correspondingly soared. This is very strange, you have to admit. Here are the figures:

So what on earth is going on? Is it a conspiracy? Have health departments all across the world been wrongly assigning ‘flu cases as Covid-19 cases, in effect faking the entire Covid-19 pandemic? Has the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 somehow ‘driven out’ ‘flu since April, preventing people from being infected with the ‘flu virus if they are already infected with SARS-CoV-2? Has mass mask wearing and social distancing prevented the spread of the ‘flu but not, bizarrely, the spread of SARS-CoV-2? All these explanations seem a little far fetched.

But we need an explanation. The transition from ‘flu to Covid is stark indeed. Here are the case statistics for North America and Northern Europe:

It’s ridiculous isn’t it. How can ‘flu just suddenly disappear? My guess is it did not. Flu and pneumonia are still mentioned on plenty of death certificates. My guess is that the focus on testing for Covid-19 has meant that ‘flu cases are being sidelined, but that moreover, people presenting with severe respiratory disease and dying from severe respiratory disease are those same people who, in a normal year would have presented with the ‘flu and died from it. SARS-CoV-2 appears to have usurped the role of ‘flu in the vulnerable population this year and carried off the susceptible. Not only that, it did so in many countries in a much shorter period, around March and April. It also carried off those who would have died naturally from other diseases too, like cancer, heart disease, stroke etc.

In this respect, Covid-19 is not a pandemic, but a syndemic. It has killed people all over the world by acting in synchrony with – and in some cases by displacing, as with ‘flu – other known morbidities. Very few healthy people under 60 have died directly from Covid-19. Here is what Richard Horton in the Lancet has to say and I believe it is very significant:

As the world approaches 1 million deaths from COVID-19, we must confront the fact that we are taking a far too narrow approach to managing this outbreak of a new coronavirus. We have viewed the cause of this crisis as an infectious disease. All of our interventions have focused on cutting lines of viral transmission, thereby controlling the spread of the pathogen. The “science” that has guided governments has been driven mostly by epidemic modellers and infectious disease specialists, who understandably frame the present health emergency in centuries-old terms of plague. But what we have learned so far tells us that the story of COVID-19 is not so simple. Two categories of disease are interacting within specific populations—infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and an array of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). These conditions are clustering within social groups according to patterns of inequality deeply embedded in our societies. The aggregation of these diseases on a background of social and economic disparity exacerbates the adverse effects of each separate disease. COVID-19 is not a pandemic. It is a syndemic. The syndemic nature of the threat we face means that a more nuanced approach is needed if we are to protect the health of our communities.

Full Circle: Boris The Red Asks Doris ‘Net Zero’ To Head Up Cop 26

A while ago now, I wrote about May’s last poisonous swipe at the UK as she retired in disgrace, having spent over three years trying to thwart the democratic votes of 17.8 million Britons. Her ‘proud legacy’ was to be the introduction of the legally binding net zero carbon emissions target by 2050 – a statutory instrument amendment to the Climate Change Act 2008. It passed, with every single MP in Parliament voting for it. Hence Doris passed into the history books as the first leader of a major industrialised economy to enact a legally binding net zero target – which would be a ‘fine example’ to the world no doubt (of what, I’m not quite sure). We could all just forget how she tried so hard to screw Brexit voters over. With any luck, we could forget she ever existed, but no, Boris had other plans.

First, he made damned sure that we could never forget the spiteful crone’s poisonous legacy by making it a manifesto commitment and then official government policy after he became elected. Boris’s Bonkers Boiler Ban was the direct result of Doris’s bonkers net zero legislation. Now, God help us, he’s actually invited the Maybot to chair the COP26 meeting in Glasgow!

THERESA May could make a shock return to frontline politics with a major new Government job, it was claimed tonight.

The ex-PM has been asked by Boris Johnson to head up the COP21 climate change summit hosted by Britain next year.

You have to forgive the Sun – they don’t know the difference between Glasgow and Paris! But that aside, just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get any worse with this government, Johnson goes and offers the former worst ever PM (which particular accolade he now proudly holds) a frontline role in government. God’s teeth! Is there no end to Boris’s talents? The scary part is, Doris hasn’t yet turned down the offer:

Mrs May was reported by the Sunday Times to have not turned down the offer but has not yet signed up.

Boris The Red Goes Full On Green

I told you he was mad. Didn’t I warn you he was nuts. He told us he was stark raving bonkers even before we elected him to ‘get Brexit done’. He’s using his Covid Communist take-down of the UK economy now as the excuse to drive through a ‘green revolution’ which will fail; it cannot but fail, though he will destroy UK energy infrastructure, cause massive and sustained blackouts, squander billions on useless offshore wind installations, drive energy prices sky-high and deprive the British people of their means of independent transport in order to prove that it will fail.

He will use his speech to the Conservative Party’s ‘virtual’ conference to set out a radical green energy plan to build thousands of coastal turbines.

Pledging to move at ‘gale force speed’, the Prime Minister wants to make Britain the world leader in offshore wind technology and create up to 60,000 jobs.

He will say of his ten-year plan: ‘You heard me right. Your kettle, your washing machine, your cooker, your heating, your plug-in electric vehicle – the whole lot of them will get their juice cleanly and without guilt from the breezes that blow around these islands.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8808135/Boris-Johnson-promises-wind-farms-power-home-Britain-ten-years.html

I can’t quite decide whether he is genuinely off his trolley and suffering from severe and incurable scientific, economic and technological illiteracy or whether he actually is acutely aware that what he is saying is total and utter bullshit. “Without guilt”? Seriously, he thinks we should feel guilty about using fossil-fuel derived electricity? When we could instead be using 100% renewable, ‘clean’, green, bat chomping, bird-slicing, cetacean and crustacean molesting, sea-view decimating, poverty inducing, rare-earth gobbling wind energy? In the final analysis, it matters not whether he is mad or bad. His clear intention now is to ‘move on’ from his catastrophic handling of the fake ‘Covid crisis’ to address the fake ‘climate crisis’, using the destruction caused by his government’s deliberate scare-mongering tactics re. Wu Flu as a springboard to jump straight back on his Green hobby horse of net zero.

The Prime Minister will claim good progress is being made on recruiting more nurses and police and say the pandemic can also be a catalyst for change, with Britain ‘building back better and greener’.  

He will add: ‘We need to give people the chance to train for the new jobs that are being created every day – in new technologies and new ways of doing things.

‘And there is one area where we are progressing quite literally with gale force speed and that is the green economy – the green industrial revolution that in the next ten years will create hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs.’

The plan is to quadruple offshore wind power so that, by 2030, every home in the UK (and every electric car) will be powered by ‘limitless breezes’. Obviously, he is nuttier than the nuttiest of Extinction Rebellion fanatics. At present, there is no technical means of incorporating 100% wind generated electricity into the grid. Above 50% penetration of zero inertia renewable energy, the grid becomes highly unstable and is likely to fail big time, resulting in huge and widespread blackouts, unless the national grid can be totally redesigned to accommodate 100% renewables in the next decade.

Boris is setting the UK up to fail. Have no doubt whatsoever about that fact. He is mad, bad, dangerous, a globalist and an eco-fanatical Green Communist – in common with the rest of the ‘Conservatives’. Replace him with Sunak, Gove, or any other serving senior Tory minister and you will get exactly the same.

This is what using wind energy ‘without guilt’ gives you. Wholesale destruction of the pristine Shetland landscape ‘without guilt’ to provide useless, expensive, intermittent, grid-destabilising ‘clean green energy’.

The Excel Hockeystick!

Just when you thought government Covid policy couldn’t get even more bizarre, along comes the Covid Cases Hockeystick courtesy of Excel. Apparently, the 12 billion pound track and trace system (which we’re paying for) uses (wait for it) an Excel spread sheet to store data on positive tests. Apparently, nearly 16,000 positive test results got left off because the maximum number of columns on the spreadsheet was exceeded and they didn’t get uploaded! So they’ve just added them on and now our cases graph looks like this:

Like, wow, that’s now a genuine bonafide Mann Hockeystick if ever I saw one! At this rate, they’ll get to 50k ‘infections’ a day by mid October no problem and then they can lock us all down at Level 3 forever. But seriously, are we supposed to believe that this graph bears any relation whatsoever to the supposed rate of spread of live infections of SARS-CoV-2 in the community? That in 2 weeks time, given that so few people are immune to the virus, this will translate into a very sharp peak in deaths? I guess it might if they store hospital death data on Excel too . . . . .

Even with all the ‘missed’ cases added on and graphed by specimen date though, the specimen date data doesn’t look quite so dramatic and scary:

Bear in mind that 250k tests a day are being done at the moment and, contrary to Hancock’s lies, they are randomly targeting asymptomatic people. These positive tests are not being generated from a majority of people who are displaying definite clinical symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This would explain why deaths are still at a very low level and are likely to remain that way – unless the government finds a ‘fix’ for the mortality data that is.

Even with the ‘lost and found’ data added back in, Whitty and Vallance’s exponential growth graph is still looking highly unlikely:

‘Our NHS’ Commits To Net Zero Carbon: Everybody Clap

NHS becomes the world’s first national health system to commit to become ‘carbon net zero’, backed by clear deliverables and milestones

You would think at a time of national crisis, with hospitals expecting to be overflowing with Covid-19 patients any time soon, following Bill and Ben, the Pol Pot Men’s (not) predicted ‘exponential’ rise in cases to 50k a day by mid October, the NHS would have other things on its mind at the moment – like the health of the nation for instance. But it seems they have ample time to pontificate about going green.

The NHS has today adopted a multiyear plan to become the world’s first carbon net zero national health system.

The commitment comes amid growing evidence of the health impacts of climate change and air pollution, and aims to save thousands of lives and hospitalisations across the country.

It’s the twin carbon evils of air pollution and climate change, conveniently lumped together for maximum effect. Ban cars, ban nasty wood burning stoves, ban nasty, smelly fossil fuel power stations, in order to make the weather better and to reduce particulate emissions, thereby making us all much healthier (and poorer, less mobile, a lot more miserable, and colder in winter). You know it makes sense – just like ‘protecting the NHS to save lives’ makes sense by kicking old people out of hospital into care homes and creating a backlog of 15 million non-Covid patients waiting for urgent treatment.

The changing climate is leading to more frequent heatwaves and extreme weather events such as flooding, including the potential spread of infectious diseases to the UK. Almost 900 people were killed by last summer’s heatwaves while nearly 18 million patients go to a GP practice in an area that exceeds the World Health Organisation’s air pollution limit.

NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens said: “2020 has been dominated by Covid-19 and is the most pressing health emergency facing us. But undoubtedly climate change poses the most profound long-term threat to the health of the nation.

“It is not enough for the NHS to treat the problems caused by air pollution and climate change – from asthma to heart attacks and strokes – we need to play our part in tackling them at source.”

It’s not enough for us to try to treat the problems caused by NHS mismanagement – we need to tackle them at source, by sacking the NHS chief executive for a start, and sacking the army of mid-level NHS managers who it seems have conspired with the government to cover up the gross mismanagement of the Covid-19 crisis and have (and still are) endangering the lives of many patients by keeping many hospitals half empty and not fully functioning.

Of course, the Marxist at the WHO welcomes the news:

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General of the World Health Organisation (WHO), said: “Cutting carbon emissions is essential to protect health, everywhere in the world. I welcome the leadership of the largest single health system in the world, the National Health Service in England, in committing to be carbon neutral in its own operations by 2040, and to drive emissions reductions in its suppliers and partners. Health is leading the way to a greener, safer planet.”

Dr Watts (I presume) is the big cheese responsible for this net zero 2040 target:

NHS England convened the NHS Net Zero Expert Panel in January following the launch of the Climate Assembly UK, to take and analyse evidence on how the health service can contribute to nationwide carbon reduction efforts.

Led by Dr Nick Watts, Executive Director of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, the Panel comprised public health and climate experts as well as patient and staff representatives.

Dr Watts and his team will engage widely to support delivery, with interventions including:

new ways of delivering care at or closer to home, meaning fewer patient journeys to hospitals;

greening the NHS fleet, including working towards road-testing a zero-emissions emergency ambulance by 2022;

reducing waste of consumable products and switching to low-carbon alternatives where possible;

making sure new hospitals and buildings are built to be net-zero emissions, and;

building energy conservation into staff training and education programmes.

Ah, there you have it, you see. Dr Watts’s cunning plan to get to net zero carbon involves getting to net zero patients, by treating most ‘at home’ presumably via video link! It’s already happening, in terms of the ‘new normal’ being ushered in by Covid lockdown hysteria. Millions of patients are being denied face to face consultations and are being telephoned at home or offered consultations via zoom. A million women who would have otherwise been scanned for breast cancer have not, either because they have been scared to seek hospital treatment for fear of catching The Covid Plague or because their routine scans have been cancelled. Just think of all the emissions saved by those women not attending hospital.

Watts again:

“The NHS’s ambition is world-leading, and the first national commitment to deliver a net zero health service. It comes at a time when the UK is preparing to host the UN climate change summit next year, and demonstrates that every part of our societies need to play their part in reducing pollution and responding to climate change.”

There is a fanatical ambition in this country it seems, prevalent in our leaders, that the UK must lead the world into the immiseration of its populace by unilaterally adopting net zero carbon targets. I wonder why that is?

Is it because we are uniquely stupid? It might seem so. I leave you with this net zero grey matter comment from Kay Boycott, CEO of Asthma UK and the British Lung Foundation:

Climate change poses a huge threat to lung health; with dangerous levels of pollution and extremes in hot and cold weather which can be deadly for people with lung conditions causing symptoms to flare up and putting lives at risk.

Boris the Red Says That Climate Action Cannot Be A Victim of Covid

But we can apparently, The economy can. Children can. Jobs can. Lives can. Mental health can. Cancer and heart patients etc. can. Civil liberties can. All will be victims as the country faces a further 6 months of socially and economically catastrophic restrictions and Christmas is cancelled – but climate action must go right ahead, according to Chairman Johnson. Are we seeing this now? #ZeroCovid (a madcap, fanatical, destructive policy which the government has now formally adopted, dispelling any notion whatsoever that lockdowns are to ‘save the NHS’ or ‘flatten the curve’) is entry-level #Netzero. #NetZero is lockdown forever.

Lest I’m accused of being a ‘Covid denier’ or conspiracy theorist, let me make it clear: SARS-CoV-2 is a real virus and Covid-19 has killed many thousands of people but, it is nowhere near as serious a threat to public health as the government has made it out to be in the last 6 months, thus justifying unprecedented and extremely damaging measures to supposedly control its spread and ‘save lives’. Don’t believe me? That’s your choice, but it is irrefutable that Whitty and Vallance lied to the public when explaining the so called threat still posed by this disease. One of many, many lies, ommissions and distortions by government and government scientific advisers over the last 6 months, I might add.

I seriously recommend you read the entire thread. It is damning. Anyone who believes in evidence-based science should be horrified by the current turn of events. But we all know of course that the stock-in-trade of climate change ‘science’ is not so much evidence-based science but science-based construction of evidence to fit a prevailing consensus narrative. So the Two Ronnies of Covid Armageddon are not so very different from the Manns and the Hayhoes of Climate Armageddon. All willing to lie in order to promote a doom-laden narrative poorly evidenced in actual science and empirical data.

The tactics employed by the critics of those scientists and sceptics who oppose the official narrative are very similar also. Professor Francois Balloux signed a letter penned by Sunetra Gupta, Carl Heneghan and Karol Sikora, urging the government to reconsider its Covid strategy. He was then promptly accused of being duped into signing what amounts to a supposed ‘right wing conspiracy’ which is lobbying for a supposedly “fringe pseudoscience” ‘herd immunity’ strategy. Heneghan, Gupta and Sikora are artificially classed as a “fringe group of scientists” allied to right wing lobbyists who are in opposition to consensus scientific opinion. Nothing could be further from the truth but the tactic will be nauseatingly familiar to followers of the debate on man-made climate change.

But to return to the subject of lockdowns and how they might be opportunistically being used to prepare the ground for more stringent climate action, there is a wealth of evidence to support that view now, with much talk of a ‘green recovery’, ‘great reset’ etc. plus real action on the ground with government proposing to bring forward the ban on petrol and diesel cars to 2030 and councils busily prioritising cycling at the expense of road traffic, following government ‘social distancing’ and ‘Covid-friendly’ Road Traffic Act amendments.

In point of fact, some people are positively salivating at the prospect of extending the concept of Covid lockdowns to ‘climate lockdowns’:

LONDON (Project Syndicate)—As COVID-19 spread earlier this year, governments introduced lockdowns in order to prevent a public-health emergency from spinning out of control. In the near future, the world may need to resort to lockdowns again—this time to tackle a climate emergency.

Shifting Arctic ice, raging wildfires in western U.S. states and elsewhere, and methane leaks in the North Sea are all warning signs that we are approaching a tipping point on climate change, when protecting the future of civilization will require dramatic interventions.

Now Boris the Red has come right out and said that climate action is basically at the top of the government’s agenda, following its deliberate destruction of the economy and the trashing of civil liberties. Getting ‘back to normal’ is definitely not on the agenda.

The prime minister will tell a meeting hosted by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres that climate action “cannot be another victim of coronavirus”.

He will urge leaders to “look ahead to how we will rebuild” after the pandemic and how to “build back better”.

Mr Johnson is expected to speak to leaders via video link.

His speech at Thursday’s UN Climate Action Roundtable is part of the preparations for a global climate conference the UK is hosting in partnership with Italy in Glasgow in November next year.

“Look ahead to how we will rebuild, and how we can seize the opportunity to build back better,” the prime minister will say.

“Let us be the leaders who secure the very health of the planet for our children, grandchildren and generations to come.”

He says he hopes the UK will serve as “a launch pad for a global green industrial revolution.”

He’s what Delingpole calls a melon: Green on the outside and Red on the inside. He’s definitely not true blue Conservative. I warned of this back in early February, even before he decided to nuke the economy to ‘Save the NHS’. I also pointed out that May – the architect of the regressive, socialist inspired net zero 2050 legislation – wasn’t either.

There’s no hope for the Tories. They have gone mad or they have collectively sold their souls to the Green Globalist Devil and no longer even pretend to govern in the national interest. They need to be consigned to history – fast.

But nobody listened. They voted Tory in their droves six months later and here we are today, with a Communist PM presiding over a broken country telling us that he’s now making climate change the top priority for any ‘recovery’ from the damage his government has inflicted.

The Covid Hockeystick and the Decline of Science

They wheeled in Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber yesterday in order to frighten the British nation once again into accepting hugely damaging restrictions upon their personal, professional and social lives in order to head off a ‘second wave’ which the blond mop-haired lunatic in charge says is ‘incoming’.

It was a cold and calculated exercise in disinformation and government propaganda, light on science, light on data, designed to conceal the actual rather less alarming truth from the public, in favour of painting an apocalyptic picture of Covid doom. Sound familiar? Of course it does. Climate ‘scientists’ and the alarmist main stream media have been doing this for years re. the so called ‘climate crisis’, more recently a task taken over with missionary zeal by Greta ‘How Dare You’ Thunberg and the unwashed, unhinged Stinking Rebellion.

James Delingpole compares the Glum Two’s effort to convince us of imminent Covid catastrophe with Mann’s Hockey Stick. To illustrate the likely growth of ‘cases’ (i.e. positive PCR tests), they came up with this really scary graph, which does look a lot like a hockey stick, but which they insisted was ‘not a prediction’ (knowing full well that the media would take it as exactly that):

Says Delingpole:

Apparently — at least according to Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Science Adviser Patrick Vallance — if we’re not careful Britain will be in danger of nearly 50,000 new Chinese coronavirus by mid-October.

My suspicion is that — just like the discredited Hockey Stick chart invented by the dodgy professor Michael Mann — it is an artefact that has much more to do with propaganda than honest science.

The Hockey Stick was what is known in colloquial English as ‘bent as a nine bob note’ — or indeed ‘dodgy as fuck’. 

As climate sceptics, we know it all too well and we know the dodgy data and dubious science which went into crafting it, which is why Delingpole says:

It’s the reason why several of the most sceptical voices on Chinese coronavirus — for example, Peter Hitchens in the UK, Marc Morano and Tony Heller in the US, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones in Australia — also happen to be very outspoken climate sceptics.

For my money though, Whitty and Vallance’s absurd exponential growth graph is more reminiscent of the absurd projections of global temperature increase by 2100 according to the misleadingly named ‘business as usual’ RCP8.5 representative concentration pathway. The analogy is closer in that W & V are probably using some dodgy Ferguson derived epidemiological model to arrive at their ‘not a prediction’; climate scientists use dodgy climate models, dodgy parameterisations of natural processes and dodgy socio-economic models to arrive at their catastrophic ‘not a prediction’ rise in global mean surface temperature:

We’ve had this BS once, with the first lockdown, with absurd modeled projections of 510,000 deaths without mitigation, leading to Johnson shutting down the country for 3 weeks to ‘flatten the curve and save the NHS’, 3 weeks which turned into 6 months with a few reluctant easing of restrictions over the summer. Now we’re back to facing a second punishing 6 months of extra restrictions/lockdown to head off a ‘casedemic catastrophe’ which government boffins assure us will eventually translate into thousands of deaths if we don’t do something urgently. There are very few hospitalisations and deaths at the moment, so the government have had to fabricate the so called ‘incoming’ second wave with reference to what is happening in Spain and France and with reference to a supposedly worrying ‘acceleration’ of ‘cases’ in this country, 90% of which may be actual false positives.

On the subject of France and Spain, here is the actual rise in cases, in both countries, compared to W & V’s projected exponential rise. Spot the difference?

The lack of anything resembling real science and solid data in the Whitty and Vallance presentation is extremely worrying, given that Johnson will almost certainly use it to impose more hugely socially and economically damaging restrictions upon the nation over winter. What on earth happened to evidence-based science? It seems to have been rejected wholesale now for government lies, propaganda, distortion and disinformation. Michael Yeadon, a former professional colleague of Vallance, is bravely standing up for it though:

Pre-Enlightenment science indeed, which is now become post Enlightenment science, post normal science; you might even say Endarkenment science. We are headed into very dangerous territory if this hocus pocus, mumbo jumbo pseudoscience being used to radically alter our societies and erode our fundamntal civil rights is not robustly challenged, right now.

UK Covid Deaths

England Covid Hospitalisations
Cases Per 100k – Updated to September 23rd

Update on Spain. They have switched to a new case diagnostic now which eliminates non-infectious positives by capping the cycle threshold on the PCR test and just look what has happened. Oh dear, the casedemic is running rapidly out of steam. If the UK were to do this, I imagine we would get exactly the same result.

Update: 2 Oct:

Even with the huge increase in testing, even with the refusal to eliminate non-infections being picked up by a cycle threshold set way too high, positive tests are levelling off it appears and the chance of getting anywhere near 50,000 cases per day is virtually zero.

Here’s the ‘inevitable rise in deaths’ following that ‘second wave’:

Even allowing for a lag between being infected and being killed by this virus, it is blatantly obvious that ‘infections’ are not translating into deaths.

Update 3 Oct:

Final update to the Vallance and Whitty Covid casedemic hockeystick. It’s a total bust now and it is clear that it should never have been presented to the public as a plausible projection. Both of them should be sacked for misleading MPs and for deliberately and unnecessarily alarming the public.

Actual Cases vs. Whitty/Vallance Hockeystick