Month: February 2021

What is behind the sharp rise in ‘Covid deaths’ soon after vaccination?

This has been bothering me for a month now. It’s why I wrote this post. When a third of residents at a nursing home just ‘happen’ to die ‘from Covid’ soon after getting vaccinated against Covid, you naturally start to ask questions. Well, at least I do. Especially when the same pattern is repeated all over the world: here, here, and here, for example. The BBC doesn’t, most of the MSM doesn’t and the vaccine-obsessed government certainly doesn’t. Other people question what’s going on too; people much smarter and better qualified to analyse data and data anomalies than myself. Joel Smalley is one such person. He is interviewed here:

The entire video is well worth watching. He illustrates very convincingly that the new ‘baseline’ for excess deaths in the UK has now moved upwards as a direct result of continuing denial of healthcare to the populace. 1000 deaths each week, every week, since the beginning of lockdown 1 in March 2020 are directly attributable to restricted access to the NHS of those suffering life threatening diseases and injuries. These deaths will continue for the foreseeable future, maybe even get worse. But I draw your attention in particular to 1hr 8mins onwards, where he talks about an ‘unexplained’ rise in deaths coincident with vaccine rollouts.

Smalley identifies near perfect correlations with vaccine rollouts and ‘Covid deaths’ of the over 80s, in England, Scotland (3 weeks later), in care homes (beginning after Christmas and New Year) and in the general community. This should concern the government, the NHS and PHE and the media greatly, but it appears not to, at least publicly. In fact, the media are quick to claim the apparent stunning success of the vaccines in preventing deaths in the older age groups, because deaths are falling rapidly. However, deaths are falling rapidly coincident with a sharp decline in vaccinations, as the rollout program in those groups comes to an end. So, you have to ask, is the lack of deaths simply a result of the lack of bodies? It’s a chilling question.

But it actually gets worse. In Israel, where a large percentage of the population have already received two doses of the Pfizer jab, there appears to be a direct correlation with ‘Covid deaths’ and vaccination even in the younger age groups. Joel is on the case again:

Here are the graphs he presents in that tweet:

It looks to me like vaccine deaths are in fact being misattributed as ‘Covid deaths’ and that significantly more deaths are occurring in the older age groups presumably due to increased frailty. But even in the 60-69 age groups, it looks like the vaccines are killing significant numbers of people – a total of 66 ‘Covid deaths’ where none occurred prior to the vaccine rollout.

Somebody else has crunched the numbers on vaccinations in Israel and they reveal a very disturbing picture.

Our reanalyses of these data explain why during the massive vaccination project initiated mid-December 2020 during a confinement, daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases failed to decrease as they do during confinements, and, more importantly, why numbers of serious, critical and death cases increased during that period that covered at least one month. From mid-December to mid-February (two months), 2337 among all Israeli 5351 official COVID-deaths occurred.Our analyses indicate orders of magnitude increases in deaths rates during the 5-week long vaccination process, as compared to the unvaccinated and those after completing the vaccination process.

The number of COVID-19 deaths among the vaccinated since the start of the vaccination action seems to explain the increased death rates from COVID-19 observed since December 2020.
For that purpose, we calculate the products of the number of vaccinated people above age 65 by 0.2 and the number of vaccinated people below 65 by 0.04. This shows that most COVID-19 deaths in that period are for vaccinated people, as shows the table provided by the Ministry of health at the beginning of February.

During the vaccination action from mid-December until mid-February, 2337 among all 5351 COVID-19 deaths reported for Israel occurred, 43.7%. Among these, since January 19, 1271 COVID-19 deaths were reported for Israel.The table provided by the Ministry of Health on February 10 states 660 COVID-19 deaths among the vaccinated, 51.9% of the deaths for that period. Only 1.3 million Israeli, among 8 million (about 1 in 8, 12.5%), were vaccinated during that period. Accordingly, vaccination promotes deaths because 51.9% of deaths during that period are for the 12.5% vaccinated in that period. In addition the serious and critical cases during that period is more than the reported serious cases, the adverse effect of the vaccination process is most likely worse than what appears from the data at hand.

The horror continues. The deaths among those vaccinated should be added to the numerous AVC and cardiac events reported just after vaccination that are not included among COVID-19 deaths which about double the deaths among those vaccinated, whose numbers remain unknown and which we will try to find in the coming days.
At this point we state that vaccinations caused more deaths than the coronavirus would have during the same period.

We conclude that the Pfizer vaccines, for the elderly, killed during the 5-week vaccination period about 40 times more people than the disease itself would have killed, and about 260 times more people than the disease among the younger age class. We stress that this is in order to produce a green passport valid at most 6 months, and promote Pfizer sales.
These estimated numbers of deaths from the vaccine are probably much lower than actual numbers as it accounts only for those defined as COVID-19 deaths for that short time period and does not include AVC and cardiac (and other) events resulting from the inflammatory reactions in tens of reports documented on the NAKIM site, which themselves are only the iceberg’s tip, see here.

If the author’s analysis is correct and these figures are true, then this is a shocking revelation, especially considering that Israeli residents have been heavily coerced into getting vaccinated and now actually need a ‘Green passport’ to gain access to many places. Remembering also that these are just the deaths occurring very soon after vaccination. In the longer term, who knows what will happen because none of the vaccines have been tested over more than a few months. Will it turn out that you have to risk your health and even your life by taking part in a mass clinical trial if you want to do all those things which previously were your inalienable right to do in a free society? This is what the Johnson government is considering implementing in the UK too, even after assuring people that they would not be introducing domestic vaccine passports. Goebbels Gove is in charge of the government review into them.

Rees-Mogg’s Ironical Tweet About Freedom and How Dryden Predicted Lockdown 350 Years Ago

Johnson tweeted this today:

Then Jacob Rees Mogg quote re-tweeted his boss:

My reply:

It’s fair to say, commenters were not impressed considering how freedom has been removed by this government. But it’s odd and intensely ironic that Rees Mogg should quote John Dryden, who seems to have seen the downfall of Britain (Albion) coming 350 years ago. His poetic opera Albion and Albanius is uncannily prophetic:

Mercury Descends.
Thou glorious Fabrick! stand for ever, stand:
Well Worthy Thou to entertain
The God of Traffique, and of Gain!
To draw the Concourse of the Land,
And Wealth of all the Main.
But where the shoales of Merchants meeting?
Welcome to their Friends repeating,
Busie Bargaines deafer sound!
Tongues Confus’d of every Nation?
Nothing here but Desolation,
Mournful silence reignes around.

O Hermes! pity me!
I was, while Heav’n did smile,
The Queen of all this Isle,
Europes Pride,
And Albions Bride;
But gone my Plighted Lord! ah, gone is Hee!
O Hermes! pity mee!

Dryden describes the ill which afflicts the nation following Albion’s departure:

Then Zeal and Common-wealth infest
My Land again;
The fumes of madness that possest
The Peoples giddy Brain

Once more disturb the Nations rest,
And dye Rebellion in a deeper Stain.

Will they at length awake the sleeping Sword,
And force revenge from their offended Lord?
How long, yee Gods, how long
Can Royal patience bear
Th’Insults and wrong
Of Mad-mens jealousies, and causeless fear?

Dryden makes plain the lament for a lost nation:

See a Sacred King uncrown’d,
See your Offspring, Albion, bound:
The gifts you gave with lavish hand,
Are all bestow’d in vain:

Extended Empire on the Land,
Unbounded o’er the Main.

Empire o’er the Land and Main,
Heav’n that gave can take again;
But a mind that’s truly brave,
Stands despising,
Storms arising,
And can ne’er be made a Slave.

Unhelpt I am, who pity’d the distress’d,
And none oppressing, am by all oppress’d;
Betray’d, forsaken, and of hope bereft:

Then he identifies those who have brought the country to this unhappy pass:

Enter Tyranny, Democracy, represented by Men, attended by Asebia, Zelota, Women.
Ha, ha, ’tis what so long I wish’d and vow’d,
Our Plots and delusions,
Have wrought such confusions,
That the Monarch’s a Slave to the Crowd.

A Design we fomented,

By Hell it was new!

A false Plot invented,

To cover a true.

First with promis’d faith we flatter’d,

Then jealousies and fears we scatter’d.

We never valu’d right and wrong,
But as they serv’d our cause;

Our Business was to please the throng,
And Court their wild applause:

For this we brib’d the Lawyers Tongue,
And then destroy’d the Law’s.

For this, &c.

To make him safe, we made his Friends our Prey;

To make him great we scorn’d his Royal sway,

And to confirm his Crown, we took his Heir away.

T’encrease his store,
We kept him poor:

And when to wants we had betray’d him,
To keep him low,
Pronounc’d a Foe,
Who e’re presum’d to aid him.

But you forget the noblest part,
And Masterpiece of all your Art,
You told him he was sick at Heart.

And when you could not work belief
In Albion of th’imagin’d grief;
Your perjur’d vouchers in a Breath,
Made Oath that he was sick to Death;
And then five hundred Quacks of skill
Resolv’d t’was fit he should be ill.

Pay particular attention to the bold. How uncannily accurate and prophetic is that? How odd that a modern politician, a member of a supposedly ‘conservative’ and ‘democratically’ elected government which has subjected the nation to a medico-fascist tyranny for nearly a year, destroying society and the economy in the process, should quote Dryden in defence of freedom! How uncannily prophetic that Dryden should identify both democracy and tyranny as the enemies of Albion, actively conspiring one with the other, to destroy the nation.

Mike Hulme, Climate Emergency and Extinction Denier, is also a Lockdown and Mass Covid Vaccination Sceptic

Mike Hulme is a former climate scientist at UEA who has consistently, with integrity and honesty, resisted the siren call of climate alarmism. Most especially, when the extinction fanatics and climate emergency cultists came to the fore and commandeered the climate change social narrative in 2019, he wrote this very sensible and enlightening piece on his blog, which was covered by Paul Matthews at Cliscep here. Hulme says:

Yet I resist the current mood of ‘extinctionism’ which pervades the new public discourse around climate change.  Talking about the future in this way is counter-productive.  And it does a disservice to development, justice, peace-making and humanitarian projects being undertaken around the world today.

A denier is a person who denies something, “… who refuses to admit the truth of a concept or proposition that is supported by the majority of scientific or historical evidence.”  If I do not believe that climate change will drive the human species to extinction, does that make me an extinction denier?  For I do not believe that there is good scientific or historical evidence that climate change will lead to human extinction.

This rise in extinction rhetoric in (largely) English-speaking societies over the past 12 months is in part linked to the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5C Warming published last October.  The slogan “we have only 12 years left” has somehow been extracted from this Report and feeds the rise of climate clocks such as this one from the Human Impact Lab in Montreal.  But the IPCC Report offers neither scientific nor historical evidence for human extinction.

From this extinction fear arises the “panic” that Greta Thunberg has called for.  Panic demands a response and one response is to declare an emergency.  ‘Climate emergencies’ are now being declared in jurisdictions ranging from universities, the British Parliament and several local authorities in the UK. 

But the rhetoric of extinction and emergency does not adequately describe the situation we find ourselves in.  Declaring a climate emergency implies the possibility of time-limited radical and decisive action that can end the emergency.  But climate change is not like this.  The historical trajectory of human expansion, western imperialism and technological development has created climate change as a new condition of human existence rather than as a path to extinction.

It’s interesting that Professor Hulme identifies SR15 as the possible source of the climate emergency/climate crisis and extinction rhetoric, whilst at the same time denying that the science therein lent any credibility to such claims. But that’s what the IPCC do. They publish the science and then they promote an unjustified and somewhat alarmist interpretation of that science in the summary for policy makers. What is more interesting is that he implies that anthropogenic climate change, which is not an existential threat or an emergency, is something we must learn to live with and adapt to and presumably attempt to mitigate.

He rejects the fear narrative:

The rhetoric of climate and extinction does not help us psychologically.  It all too easily induces feelings of terror as Ed Maibach at George Mason University bluntly remarks, “As a public health professional (and as a human), I find the prospect of 3 or 4 degree C of global warming to be nothing short of terrifying.”  But inducing a state of terror generates counter-productive responses in human behaviour.

He also rejects the idea that we need a wholesale reorganisation of society and political structures in order to deal with climate change:

Nor does the rhetoric of climate and extinction help us politically.  Simply ‘uniting behind the science’ or ‘passing on the words of science’ gets us no further forward politically.  Even if climate science predicted the extinction of humanity, as Darrick Evensen explains climate change “raises a host of ethical, historical and cultural questions that are at most tangentially connected to any scientific findings.”

Bearing this in mind, it is perhaps not surprising to find that Mike Hulme also rejects the ‘Covid crisis’ narrative and is sceptical of the value of lockdowns, arguing for the restoration of our society and former political structures, stating that we must learn to live with this disease. Hulme rejects the simplistic narrative that mass vaccination will achieve a return to normality, as promoted by politicians and as naively believed by so many.

There is a naïve assumption that mass vaccination will allow social life in the UK to return to normal.  It is far from obvious that this is so.  As the authoritarian regulation of public life extends and continues, the erosion of collective and individual freedoms will only be reversed if citizens demand it.

He criticises the misguided belief in science as the saviour of society and the sole arbiter of policy:

Science is sustained on the promise that its enterprise not only yields greater knowledge about how the physical world works but, crucially, that this knowledge offers more certainty about the future.  And that with more certainty about the future, science therefore enables better (‘more rational’) decisions to be made about how to secure policy goals. 

The political rhetoric regarding the progression of the coronavirus pandemic and the development of vaccines has certainly leant heavily on this promise.  Those whose guiding light is premised on science, therefore remain suspended between finding ways of living a worthwhile life amidst deep uncertainty and waiting for science to deliver on its promise.

But such a prospectus mis-sells science.  And it underestimates the complexity of how physical and social worlds interact to create the future.  The more scientific knowledge is gained about the physical world, the more it is realized what is still not known.  The exploratory frontier of science never closes; indeed, it continues to expand.  This is what history teaches us, not least with respect to infectious diseases and vaccines.

The vaccine rollout will not, cannot restore what has been lost through lockdowns:

Now don’t mis-read me.  I am most definitely not anti-science and vaccines are good things. Absolutely.  The world needs them, desperately.  But we deceive ourselves badly if we think that the mass roll out of vaccines will by itself put back together our broken social and economic worlds.  The biggest danger in the roll-out of vaccines is that in the public mind they are interpreted as white horses riding out to save us.

This is a mirage.  Vaccines will reduce case fatality rates and the incidence of serious side-effects.  But transmission will continue, albeit at lower rates but with occasional spikes.  SARS-CoV-2 will still be with us.  We need to find better ways of living with the risks this virus will continue to pose to life and health than by suspending individual and collective freedoms through shutting down society (lockdown). 

He is obviously very concerned at the loss of liberty and the social and psychological harms inflicted upon us as a result of lockdowns:

These restrictions are deeply worrying, whilst also appearing disarmingly mundane.

Worrying for those who hold to a certain view of western liberal democracy are the following: the abandonment of the right of assembly; unprecedented state restriction on personal freedom of movement; the forcible incarceration of elders in care homes (keeping them alive so that they may die lonely and alone); the isolation of the mentally ill in hospitals; the enforced schooling of children at home; the suspension of the right to trade; the expansion of state surveillance; the enlargement and intrusion of police powers into private life.

Who could disagree? Quite a few, apparently, which is worrying in itself.

He says what I have been saying myself for many months. The only way to end this nightmare is for us, the people, to stand up and re-assert our right to live life normally again. The government is not going to give us back what it has taken unless we demand it. Meekly acquiescing to a coerced mass vaccination campaign which mainly benefits people like Bill Gates will not get us back to normal. Quite the opposite in fact. It will inform the government that it can dictate to us even what we put into our own bodies. That is an extremely perilous thing to do.

The simple belief that securing the mass roll out of vaccines will automatically reverse the state’s appropriation of unprecedented powers, manifest in the large and small ways summarized above, is dangerous in both its naivety and passivity.  Vaccines of course do not have the agency to return rights and freedoms that have been suspended, but neither can we expect politicians or medical experts to automatically restore them.  The totalizing hold that the central state now has on British political and social life will only be relaxed by citizens demanding the return of those liberties and freedoms that have been withheld. 

Until public fear is neutralised, COVID risk normalised and citizens demand the Government returns their political and social freedoms, we will remain living under conditions of emergency, thus perpetuating the fragmentation and de-socialisation of society.

There is hard political, psychological and social work to be done in re-constructing the basic elements of a free and sociable society that have been so badly damaged.  Three things are necessary in the weeks, months and years ahead to achieve what the vaccines on their own cannot achieve — the re-socialisation of society.

Mike advises of the need to dispel the irrational and damaging fear which has been deliberately generated and engineered by alarmist academics and psychologists at SAGE, the media and by the government itself:

Second is to alter the mass psychology of a nation that has been tutored by the iatocracy and the media into fearing coronavirus.  Sociologist Robert Dingwall argues thus: “Above all, we must dispel the current mood of fear and the arguments of those who thrive upon that fear.”  Or to quote a more distant, but equally perceptive, voice: “The only thing we have to fear is … fear itself – nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance”.

Finally, Mike advises us that we must learn to live with the risk of death or disease from SARS-CoV-2. Just like the ever present risks of climate change must be normalized, managed and incorporated into our existing social and political structures sensibly and rationally, which means not kowtowing to the demands of extinction rebellion fanatics and hysterics at the Graun screaming that we must radically alter our society, our behaviours and our modes of governance in order to avert an existential climate crisis.

And, third, it is necessary to accept that COVID-19 and its threats to human life and health will not be eliminated by vaccines.  COVID risk needs to be treated just like other presenting risks.  (I am not saying that all risks are equal in threat or the same in character; rather, that we need equally to learn how to live with risk while preserving the things we value).  COVID risk should not be exceptionalised.  It needs to be assimilated into everyday risk awareness, social norms and human behaviour.

CMIP6: In a Sea of Junk Models, The Met Office’s UKESM1.0 Model Stands Out as Even More Junk

There’s a post published at Watts Up With That which provides a sneak preview of some CMIP6 models runs for the upcoming release of the IPCC’s AR6 (Part 1: Physical Science Basis due in April 2021). As the author, Andy May says:

The new IPCC report, abbreviated “AR6,” is due to come out between April 2021 (the Physical Science Basis) and June of 2022 (the Synthesis Report). I’ve purchased some very strong hip waders to prepare for the events. For those who don’t already know, sturdy hip waders are required when wading into sewage. 

Andy has looked at some of CMIP6 climate model runs posted on KNMI Explorer and this is what he found:

The base period is 1981-2010 and the emissions pathway is ssp245, which is similar to the old RCP4.5 concentration pathway. Most as you can see project global warming in 2100 to be somewhere between just over 1.0C and 2.5C, which in itself is quite a spread. But then you look at UKESM1.0 (light blue) and CanESM5 (yellow – partly obscured) and they are projecting warming anywhere between about 2.5C and 3.8C. They stand out like sore thumbs in 2100, as does UKESM1.0 hindcast warming in the 1960s using historical forcings. As you can see, UKESM1.0 cools the mid 20th century cooling period by -1.5C compared to 1981-2010! That is huge and is not borne out by actual observations. I went into the reasons for this discrepancy here.

To get a clearer picture of how UKESM deviates from actual measurements, here are the graphs of Hadcrut 4 against the model runs:

Quite obviously, UKESM1.0 vastly overstates mid 20th century cooling in the northern hemisphere. Why? Because it greatly overestimates the impact of anthropogenic aerosol cooling. Here is what the Met Office say about UKESM1.0 and the physical general circulation model on which it is based:

The Earth System Model UKESM1, and the physical model (or General Circulation Model) it is based on, HadGEM3-GC3.1 are the result of years of work by scientists and software engineers from the Met Office and wider UK science community.

Analysis shows the climate sensitivity of the models is high. For both models the Transient Climate Sensitivity (TCR) is about 2.7 °C, while the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)  is about 5.4°C for UKESM1 and about 5.5°C for GC3.1. Future projections using the new models are in progress. When these have been analysed, we will have a better understanding of how the climate sensitivity affects future warming and associated impacts.

Very high sensitivity means that historic aerosol forcings must be correspondingly high in order for the model to align with current (presumed highly accurate) global mean surface temperature data. But the aerosol forcing is so high that it ends up unrealistically cooling the 1960s. As I pointed out:

UKESM1 massively overstates mid 20th century cooling but it has to if it is to get the rest of the historical record more or less correct with such a ridiculously high sensitivity built in. Note that it is indeed overestimated aerosol cooling which is responsible for this 20th century mismatch because it is much more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere where most of the heavy industry was and still is.

The Met Office confirms that large anthropogenic aerosol forcings were incorporated into the development of UKESM1.0:

UKESM1 is developed on top of the coupled physical model, HadGEM3-GC3 (hereafter GC3). GC3 consists of the Unified Model (UM) atmosphere, JULES land surface scheme, NEMO ocean model and the CICE sea ice model. The UM atmosphere in GC3 is Global Atmosphere version 7 (GA7). Inclusion in GA7 of both a new cloud microphysics parameterization and the new GLOMAP aerosol scheme led to a concern the model might exhibit a strong negative historical aerosol radiative forcing (i.e. a strong aerosol-induced cooling due to increasing anthropogenic emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors over the past ~150 years) with potentially detrimental impacts on the overall historical simulation of both GC3 and UKESM1.

A protocol was therefore developed to assess the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) of the mainclimate forcing agents over the historical period (~1850 to 2000), namely; well mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols and aerosol precursors, tropospheric ozone and land use change. This protocol follows that of the CMIP6 RFMIP project (Andrews 2014, Pincus et al. 2016). The aim was to assess the change in the mean top-of-atmosphere (TOA) ERF between average pre-industrial (~1850 in our experiments) and present-day (~2000) conditions. In particular to assess the aerosol ERF, with a requirement that the total (all forcing agents) historical ERF be positive. Initial tests revealed an aerosol ERF of -2.2 Wm-2, significantly stronger than the -1.4 Wm-2 simulated by HadGEM2-A (Andrews 2014) and also outside the IPCC AR5 5-95% range of -1.9 to -0.1 Wm-2. As a result of the large (negative) aerosol ERF, the total ERF diagnosed over the historical period was approximately 0 Wm-2.

They were so large initially that they had to find a method of actually reducing them:

We therefore investigated aspects of GA7 that could be causing this strong aerosol forcing and, where possible, introduced new processes and/or improved existing process descriptions to address these. The goal of this effort was to develop an atmosphere model configuration solidly based on GA7.0 that:1.Had a less negative aerosol ERF and thereby a total historical ERF of >+ 0.5 Wm-22.

The above is bad enough news for the historical authenticity of UKESM1.0 and hence its reliability in terms of future projections, but it gets worse. A paper recently published argues that anthropogenic aerosol forcings cool the climate even less than originally thought, meaning that UKESM1.0 is even more out of sync with reality than as described above:

“Our conclusion is that the cooling effect of aerosols on clouds is overestimated when we rely on ship-track data,” says Glassmeier. “Ship tracks are simply too short-lived to provide the correct estimate of cloud brightening.” The reason for this is that ship-track data don’t account for the reduced cloud thickness that occurs in widespread pollution. “To properly quantify these effects and get better climate projections, we need to improve the way clouds are represented in climate models,” Glassmeier explains further.

Oh dear, it’s not looking good for the Met Office’s ‘flagship’ CMIP6 climate model. Maybe they need to raise the white flag of surrender. It’s not much better for the Canadian model either, or in fact any of the CMIP6 13 model ensemble according to Andy May.

Historical forcings are used prior to 2014 and projected values after. The blue and orange curves are from two runs from a single Canadian model. The two runs are over 0.2°C different in 2010 and 2011, some months they are over 0.5°C different. There are multiple periods where the model runs are clearly out-of-phase for several years, examples are 2001-2003 and 2014 to 2017. The period from 2015 to 2019 is a mess.

I’m unimpressed with the CMIP6 models. The total warming since 1900 is less than one degree, but the spread of model results in Figure 1 is never less than one degree. It is often more than that, especially in the 1960s. The models are obviously not reproducing the natural climate cycles or oscillations, like the AMOPDO and ENSO. As can be seen in Figure 2 they often are completely out-of-phase for years, even when they are just two runs from the same model. I used the Canadian model as an example, but the two NCAR model runs (CESM2) are no better. In fact, in the 2010-2011 period and the 2015-2019 period they are worse as you can see in Figure 4.

Terror Watch: South African Variant Icebergs Trigger Ice Ages – Global Warming May or May Not Cause Antarctic Icebergs To Drift North

Mark Hodgson, a commenter at Cliscep, alerted me to an article in the Guardian this morning. It is entitled:

Terrawatch: the adventurous icebergs that trigger ice ages

How does an ice age start? We know that changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun alter the amount of solar energy reaching our planet, but it has long been a mystery as to how this triggers such a dramatic change in the climate. A study shows that Antarctic icebergs may be responsible for tipping the balance.

Aidan Starr, from Cardiff University, and his team analysed sediments recovered by the International Ocean Discovery Program from the ocean floor south of South Africa. Within those sediments were tiny fragments of rock dropped by melting Antarctic icebergs. By studying the chemistry of the tiny deep-sea fossils found throughout the sediment core, the scientists were able to show that when climate conditions enabled icebergs to travel this far north they made the North Atlantic fresher and the Southern Ocean saltier.

Climate and ocean simulations revealed that this pulse of freshwater to the North Atlantic triggered changes in ocean circulation patterns that led to more carbon dioxide being pulled out of the Earth’s atmosphere, helping to plunge the planet into an ice age. The results, which were published in Nature, show that every glacial period over the last 1.6m years is associated with Antarctic icebergs straying farther north than normal.

That was it. That was the entire article. Something’s wrong here I thought, the Graun almost never publishes anything on climate without mentioning the dreaded climate crisis. There must be more to it than this. So I dug a little deeper into reports elsewhere of this recently published paper and sure enough, climate change does get mentioned, by the authors themselves in fact.

Professor Ian Hall, co-author of the study and co-chief scientist of the IODP Expedition, also from the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said: “Our results provide the missing link into how Antarctica and the Southern Ocean responded to the natural rhythms of the climate system associated with our orbit around the sun.”

Over the past 3 million years the Earth has regularly plunged into ice age conditions, but at present is currently situated within an interglacial period where temperatures are warmer.

However, due to the increased global temperatures resulting from anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the researchers suggest the natural rhythm of ice age cycles may be disrupted as the Southern Ocean will likely become too warm for Antarctic icebergs to travel far enough to trigger the changes in ocean circulation required for an ice age to develop.

Professor Hall believes that the results can be used to understand how our climate may respond to anthropogenic climate change in the future.

“Likewise as we observe an increase in the mass loss from the Antarctic continent and iceberg activity in the Southern Ocean, resulting from warming associated with current human greenhouse-gas emissions, our study emphasises the importance of understanding iceberg trajectories and melt patterns in developing the most robust predictions of their future impact on ocean circulation and climate,” he said.

I’ve been around the whole subject of climate change alarmism long enough to know how these guys’ minds work. The above passage is very subtly phrased such that it leaves it open for climate scientists to claim either that man-made global warming means that ice ages might never happen ever again because we have made the oceans too warm for Antarctic icebergs to drift far enough north to trigger them or we’ve warmed the Antarctic so much that it’s beginning to break up and massive icebergs drifting as far north as the Cape may trigger a future catastrophic ice age. They like to keep their options open.

Freshwater pulses into the north Atlantic have long been associated with a dramatic slowing of the AMOC and climate alarmists have used evidence of rapidly melting Greenland glaciers (allegedly caused by global warming) to argue that the region may reach a ‘tipping point’ where the AMOC (which includes the Gulf Stream) abruptly slows, plunging Europe and North America into an era of much colder winters. Not a full ice age, more akin to that which happened during the Little Ice Age. But then other scientists have argued that we narrowly missed a full glacial inception near the end of that period and it was only man-made GHGs which ‘saved’ us. So it’s clear, there’s room to argue that if AMOC is disrupted by a nasty South African variant iceberg which has travelled far north from the Antarctic (due to global warming fracturing the ice shelf) we may be in for some decidedly chilly weather.

The authors argue that this may not happen (as it apparently has happened at each previous glacial inception) because the icebergs which break off may not travel as far north as South Africa because the Southern Ocean will be too warm. Hence the planet may be ‘doomed’ to remain within a perpetual warm interglacial. But it’s not that warm in the seas around Antarctica at the moment – in fact, the Southern ocean surface waters have been cooling, especially over recent decades, contrary to scientists’ expectations.

Despite global warming, SSTs in the Southern Ocean (SO) have cooled in recent decades largely as a result of internal variability. The global impact of this cooling is assessed by nudging evolving SO SST anomalies to observations in an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations under historical radiative forcing, and comparing against a control ensemble. The most significant remote response to observed SO cooling is found in the tropical South Atlantic, where increased clouds and strengthened trade winds cool the sea surface, partially offsetting the radiatively‐forced warming trend. The SO ensemble produces a more realistic tropical South Atlantic SST trend, and exhibits a higher pattern correlation with observed SST trends in the greater Atlantic basin, compared to the control ensemble. SO cooling also produces a significant increase in Antarctic sea ice, but not enough to offset radiatively‐induced ice loss; thus, the SO ensemble remains biased in its sea ice trends.

Over the period 1982 to 2011, however, a cooling trend was recorded in surface waters in some parts of the Southern Ocean around the Antarctic continent, specifically in the area south of 55 degrees latitude. This cooling was strongest in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, where the ocean surface cooled by around 0.1°C per decade, and the weakest in the Indian and parts of the Atlantic sectors.

So at the moment, there is not much preventing a large piece of the Antarctic ice sheet which has broken away from drifting north into the ocean and heading towards South Africa. The Southern Ocean does not look like it’s going to become warm enough to melt icebergs any time soon. Oh dear. South African variant icebergs may be the ‘tipping point’ which propels the planet into a new and deadly Ice Age. We could call these dangerous icebergs ‘Thunbergs’, after dear Greta, who is forever warning us about tipping points.